October was a good month for investors, with solid gains of 8.8%. Is this the end of the bear market, or just another head fake? It’s too early to tell.
Because of the recent movement, on Oct 28th, our T2R 2.0 risk management indicator flipped too positive. Remember, both of our risk management indicators must be positive for us to enter into new equity positions. Therefore, we continue to maintain our defensive posture.

Our T2R 2.0 Risk Management indicator turned Positive on July 28. But, the T2R 1.0 Risk Management indicator continued to be negative, keeping us in a defensive posture. The T2R 2.0 turned Negative on Sept 21st and remains there as of this publishing date.

The months of June and July showed promise… Then came August. The S&P 500 finished August with a 3.3% loss-making its year-to-date return – 17%. Just think, September is typically one of the worst trading months of the year.

The month of July was a positive and welcome change. The S&P 500 finished July with a 9.1% gain making its year-to-date return -13.3. The Federal Reserve’s positive comments this week after it increased interest rates by .75% gave investors hope that inflation may be peaking and future rate increases may be more moderate than previously thought. The upbeat words by Fed Chairman Powell sent investors running back into stocks.

The month of June was another downer for the markets. The S&P 500 finished with another 7.6% decline making its year-to-date return -20.6. The end of June also marks the end of the second quarter. Interestingly enough, this has been the worst first half-year performance for the S&P 500 since 1970 and the worst for the NASDAQ ever! The same old issues continue to trouble the market. Inflation fears, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, and global growth concerns. Corporate earnings will start to arrive in approximately a week and will provide either additional downward pressure or an upward catalyst. The market continues to have plenty to worry about.

The week of May 23 was the first weekly gain for major market averages over the last nine weeks. Prior to that, the market had been down for eight consecutive weeks, which hasn’t happened since the 1930s.
The same issues continue to plague the market. Inflation fears, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, and global growth concerns. Although corporate earnings were a bright spot last week. The market continues to have plenty to worry about.
As discussed in May’s newsletter, on March 4th the T2R 1.0 risk management indicator (Longer-Term) turned Negative and remains Negative.
However, the T2R 2.0 risk management indicator (short-term), which had been negative since April 20, returned to positive on Friday, May 27.

It’s no secret that market volatility continues. With inflation fears, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, and Corporate earnings, there’s plenty for investors to worry about.
As discussed in April’s newsletter, on March 4th the T2R 1.0 risk management indicator (Longer-Term) turned Negative and remains Negative.
The T2R 2.0 Risk Management Indicator (Shorter Term) was positive at the start of April. It turned negative on April 20th. Therefore, both risk management indicators are currently negative.
Remember, for AIA to suggest a full equity (stock) allocation, both risk indicators must be Positive.
This condition still suggests the probability of near-term market volatility continuing. Therefore, your allocation away from equity/stock positions is still warranted. All subscribers are suggested to continue with the current defensive posture. Meaning, reduce or eliminating equity exposure in favor of either bonds or cash per the AIA allocation.
Due to the current inflationary environment, your Bond allocations should consist of shorter-term bonds that are more resistant to rising interest rates.

As mentioned in our January 21, 2022 newsletter, the T2R 2.0 Risk Management Indicator went Negative. The T2R 2.0 risk Management Indicator has recently turned Positive.
However, on March 4th the T2R 1.0 risk management indicator also turned Negative and remains Negative. Therefore, for a short period of time during March both risk indicators were Negative.
Remember, for AIA to suggest a full equity (stock) allocation, both risk indicators must be Positive.
Currently, T2R 1.0 is Negative and T2R 2.0 is Positive.
This condition still suggests the probability of near-term market volatility continuing. Therefore, your allocation away from equity/stock positions is still warranted. All subscribers are suggested to continue with the current defensive posture. Meaning, reduce or eliminate equity exposure in favor of either bonds or cash per the AIA allocation. See reallocation detail below.

As mentioned in our January 2020 newsletter, the T2R 2.0 Risk Management Indicator went Negative. The T2R 2.0 risk Management Indicator continues Negative. This indicates the probability of near-term market volatility continuing. Therefore, a reallocation away from equity/stock positions is still warranted. All subscribers are suggested to continue with the current defensive posture. Meaning, reduce or eliminate equity exposure in favor of either bonds or cash per the AIA allocation. See reallocation detail below.

On the afternoon of January 21, 2022, the T2R 2.0 Risk Management Indicator went Negative. This indicates a period of near-term market distress. Therefore, a reallocation away from equity/stock positions is warranted. All subscribers are suggested to move out of all current AIA equity sector positions and into either bonds or cash per the new AIA allocation. See reallocation detail below.